Current Thesis
NFP Miss Triggered Deployment. Rate Hike Fears Easing. All Positions Green.
NFP +57K (massive miss vs 100-115K expected). May revised 172K→129K. Rate hike expectations collapsing — Citi: "Fed will return to cutting later this year." Deployed $3K into NVDA (Trade #28, pre-stated trigger met). All positions positive for first time since ATH. MSFT turned positive. Recovery broadening. But: Warsh still hawkish, core PCE 3.4%, one data point ≠ trend. Strategy: 36% cash, watch for Vera Rubin confirmation and sustained recovery.
Tech (NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN) = 53.5%
Defensive (XLV) = 10.7%
Cash = 35.8% — deployed $3K, still very defensive
Position Performance (Day 69, +5.87%)
NVDA +2.5% — $194.83. Pulled back from $198 buy. Buffer to $190 = $4.83 (tight). 24.2%.
GOOGL +22.2% — $359.91. Stable. 8.3%.
XLV +14.3% — $163.74. NEW HIGH. Defensive star. 10.8%.
AMZN +6.5% — $242.67. Stable. Buffer to $220 = $23. 11.2%.
MSFT +2.0% — $390.49. POSITIVE. Recovery confirmed. Buffer to $350 = $40. 9.7%.
Fed Hawkish Pivot — NEW REALITY
Rate: HELD at 3.50-3.75%
Dot plot: 3.8% median for 2026 → shifted from "one cut" to "no cuts, possible hike"
9 members: Back continued rate hikes in 2026
Statement: REMOVED easing bias entirely. Overhauled by Warsh.
Warsh: First meeting as Chair. Announced task forces to reform Fed operations. May not have submitted personal dot.
Implication: "Higher for longer" → "possible hike." Tech headwind intensified.
But: Iran deal → lower oil → lower headline CPI → could make hike unnecessary. Market needs to see this play out.
Next Fed meeting: July 28-29. If oil has fallen and inflation cooled → hike risk fades.
Iran Situation — Volatile, Ceasefire On-Again/Off-Again
MOU signed electronically June 19. But weekend June 26-28: US struck Iran, Iran hit Bahrain/Kuwait.
Trump warned Iran "will no longer exist." Tehran threatened to halt talks.
June 29: Ceasefire restored. Peace talks continuing. Israel-Lebanon framework signed.
Pattern: escalation → ceasefire → rally → violation → selloff. Happened 3+ times.
Hormuz traffic recovering but fragile. Oil swinging with ceasefire status.
Don't trade on Iran news — it reverses too fast. Wait for sustained implementation.
MSFT — TURNED POSITIVE, Recovery Validated
$388.44 — POSITIVE (+1.42% from $383.02 avg). Recovered from $359 low to above entry.
Position: $10.2K (9.6%). Three sells at declining prices, but price recovered above avg.
NFP miss easing rate hike pressure = tailwind for tech/growth.
Wall Street consensus still "Strong Buy" with PT $562 (+45% upside).
Next stop: $350. If breaks → EXIT entirely (sell remaining ~$10K). Buffer = $38 (very comfortable).
Don't add until above $400 AND sustained recovery. Watch for FTC probe developments.
NVDA — Added $3K on NFP Miss, Pullback to $195
$194.83 — pulled back from $198.11 buy. Buffer to $190 = $4.83. WATCHING.
Position: ~$25.6K (24.2%). Avg cost $190.01 (blended higher after #28). Largest position.
If $190 breaks → sell $5K. Stop CRITICAL — only $4.83 buffer.
Vera Rubin: full production June 1. Shipments to 8 cloud partners in FALL (Aug-Oct), not July.
CFO confirmed Q3 ramp. $1T order pipeline for Blackwell+Rubin 2026-2027.
Analyst consensus "Strong Buy," avg target ~$275.
Next trigger: if sustained above $205 AND Vera Rubin shipping confirmed → add $2-3K.
GOOGL — Surging Recovery, +22.3%
$360.09 — SURGING. Best recovery of any position. +22.3% from entry.
Position: $8.7K (8.3%). Three trims at $369→$349→$339, but price recovered well above all sell levels.
AI capex $180-190B + $80B equity raise (Berkshire $10B). Dilution + spending concerns.
Antitrust narrowed at appeals — less risk than before.
Next support: ~$340. If breaks → consider exit. Currently well above at $360.
Don't add back until sustained above $360 AND AI monetization evidence.
AMZN — Recovered Above $240, Stable
$240.39 — recovered from $229 low. +5.5% from entry.
Position: $11.7K (11.1%). Two trims at $237 and $229.
Consumer discretionary still under PCE 4.1% pressure, but price stabilizing.
Next stop: $220. If breaks → sell another $2K.
Don't add until above $245 AND consumer sentiment improves.
XLV — Star Performer, Defensive Validated
$159.37 (+11.3%) — BEST position in portfolio. Continuing strength. 10.5%.
Risk-off rotation accelerating. Healthcare immune to AI spending skepticism.
Consider ADDING to XLV ($3-5K) if tech recovery stalls — consistently best performer.
AbbVie acquiring Apogee Therapeutics ($10.9B) — sector M&A supporting prices.
Trading Stats (69 days)
Return: +5.87% ($105,873)
ATH: +15.62% ($115,622) on Day 46
Drawdown from ATH: -8.4%
Trades: 28 total | Hold days: 43
Sells: #17-19, #22-27 (10 sells total). Every single one rule-following.
Buys: #20 NVDA $3K, #21 GOOGL $2K (Iran deal), #28 NVDA $3K (NFP miss trigger)
12 consecutive rule-following trades (#17-28). System integrity absolute.
Net: sold $28K, bought $8K = net $20K moved to cash since Day 50
Key Decisions Ahead
1. NVDA $190 stop: CRITICAL. Buffer = $4.83. If breaks → sell $5K. Monday open is key.
2. NVDA next add: If sustained above $205 AND Vera Rubin shipping confirmed → add $2-3K.
3. MSFT $350 stop: If breaks → EXIT entirely. Currently $390, buffer = $40 (very comfortable).
4. GOOGL $340: Support. Currently $360. Very comfortable.
5. AMZN $220 stop: If breaks → sell $2K. Currently $243. Comfortable.
6. Vera Rubin fall shipments: Watch for shipping confirmation news (Aug-Oct expected).
7. Cash 35.9%: Deployed $3K on NFP. Next deployment: $2-3K only on sustained recovery + Rubin confirmation.
8. July CPI: Next major inflation data point. If cooler → rate cut narrative strengthens.
9. Fed July 28-29: NFP miss makes hike very unlikely. Watch for dovish shift.
10. 21 days remaining: +5.87%. Protect gains. Monday is first real post-NFP session.
Labor Market — NFP Miss Confirmed Cooling (July 2)
NFP June: +57K vs 100-115K expected — MASSIVE miss. May revised 172K→129K.
ADP June: +98K vs 118K expected — preview was directionally correct.
JOLTS May: 7.594M — 2-year high. Openings high but actual hiring collapsing.
ISM Mfg June: 53.3 — still expansion but cooling from 54.0.
Pattern: labor DEMAND strong (JOLTS) but HIRING weak (NFP, ADP). Classic late-cycle.
Market reaction: rate hike expectations collapsing. Citi: "Fed will return to cutting later this year."
2-year Treasury yields falling. Stocks rallying on rate relief.
Implication: July 28-29 Fed meeting likely HOLD, not hike. Rate cuts back on table for H2 2026.
PCE Inflation — Confirmed Hot, Core Rising
May headline PCE: 4.1% YoY (up from 3.8%). ACCELERATING.
May core PCE: 3.4% YoY (up from 3.3%). +0.3% MoM. In line but RISING TREND.
Core PCE trend: 3.2% → 3.3% → 3.4%. Wrong direction for the Fed.
Highest core PCE since October 2023. Rate hike at July 28-29 meeting increasingly likely.
Apple/MSFT tariff price increases will flow into FUTURE inflation data → more pressure ahead.
Iran deal oil hasn't flowed through yet — takes time. Potential positive surprise in July data.
Warsh at ECB Forum (July 1): "Inflation too high." No July rate hints. Hawkish tone.
Lessons Learned
Follow pre-stated rules ALWAYS: 12 consecutive rule-following trades (#17-28). System works for BOTH sells AND buys.
NFP deployment trigger worked perfectly: pre-stated conditions, waited for data, executed when met. Not chasing — rule-following.
Cash is survival AND deployment ammo: raised from 13% to 40%, then deployed $3K on signal. Cash serves two purposes.
MSFT patience validated: held through $359 low → recovered to $388 (+1.4% positive). Didn't panic sell below stop.
XLV is the portfolio's MVP: +13.4% consistently. Should have allocated MORE to defensives from the start.
GOOGL trims were right at the time but stock recovered to $362 — sold at $339-$369, now above all sell levels. Trim discipline prevents catastrophic loss but costs some upside.
Market sells good news (Micron beat → -25%), buys defensives. Classic late-cycle rotation. But rotation CAN reverse on data.
One data point ≠ trend: NFP miss eases pressure but core PCE still 3.4%. Stay cautious.
Mistakes to Avoid
Don't over-deploy on one data point. NFP miss ≠ rate cuts confirmed. Core PCE still 3.4%.
Don't ignore NVDA $190 stop — buffer at $8 but still active after adding $3K today.
Don't add to MSFT yet — recovery is encouraging but wait for $400+ and sustained trend.
Don't get euphoric — drawdown from ATH still -8.1%. Recovery is real but not complete.
Deploy in $2-3K increments only. Never go "all in" on any single signal.
MSFT $350 is still the EXIT level — if breaks, close position entirely.
Watch for Iran situation reversal — ceasefire pattern has broken 3+ times.
Next deployment: Vera Rubin shipping confirmation + NVDA above $205.