Current Thesis
NVDA Unstoppable — H200 China Clearance + 6 Days to May 20 Earnings
US cleared H200 sales to Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, JD.com (10 firms total). Jensen Huang with Trump at Xi summit. NVDA surging to $233 ATH. S&P/Nasdaq at record highs. Warsh takes over Fed — hawkish but irrelevant to AI thesis. Strategy: hold everything, don't sell NVDA before May 20, keep cash for post-earnings.
Tech (NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN) = 68.8% — NVDA leading at 23.9%
Defensives (GLD, XLV) = 22.4% — GLD inflation hedge
Cash = 8.8% — reserve for post-earnings
Position Performance (Day 34, +15.40% — ATH)
GOOGL +40.8% — Best % gain. $395.96. Quiet strength.
NVDA +29.2% — NEW ATH $233. H200 China clearance + summit. 6 days to earnings. Largest position.
AMZN +17.4% — $267.58. Steady. AWS + Supply Chain Services.
MSFT +10.3% — $409.32. Recovered from $403 lows. Capex narrative persisting.
GLD +3.8% — $430.56. Inflation hedge working with hot CPI.
XLV +2.5% — $146.82. Steady defensive.
H200 China Clearance (May 14)
Reuters exclusive: US cleared ~10 Chinese firms to buy NVDA H200 chips
Approved buyers: Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, JD.com, Lenovo
No deliveries made yet — regulatory framework concerns
H200 is NVDA's second-most powerful AI chip cleared for China
Potential: Massive new revenue stream if deliveries begin
Risk: Geopolitics could freeze clearance. But Jensen in Beijing signals confidence.
Warsh Fed Transition (May 14)
Confirmed 54-45 (most divisive Fed Chair vote ever)
Hawkish: wants to deleverage balance sheet
Trump pushing for rate cuts, but hot CPI (3.8%) + energy inflation makes cuts unlikely
Markets shrugged — tech rally continued through transition
Impact: Minimal for AI thesis. May matter for rate-sensitive sectors later.
NVDA Earnings Countdown (6 days)
NEW ATH: $233
Earnings: May 20 after close
Revenue guidance: $78B. Prior Q: $68.1B (+73% YoY). Analysts say too low.
Consensus: Strong Buy. Avg target $272. Morningstar FV $260. SA target $292.
P/E 40.5 vs 10yr avg 61.7 — still "cheap" by historical standards.
MSFT capex $190B (above $154B expected) = NVDA GPU demand
CFO: Sequential growth throughout 2026, $500B+ Blackwell/Rubin opportunity
Catalysts: H200 China clearance + Trump-Xi deal + earnings + hyperscaler demand
MSFT Assessment
$409 — recovered from $403 lows but below $424 peak
Headwinds: $190B capex, falling FCF, capex narrative
Tailwinds: Azure +40%, AI revenue $37B run rate
Strategy: Hold. Don't add unless below $395. Don't sell — fundamentals intact.
Trading Stats (34 days)
Return: +15.40% ($115,402) — NEW ATH
Prior ATH: +14.34% ($114,336) on Day 30
Trade days: 12 | Hold days: 22
NVDA: avg $180.31 → $233 (+29.2%) — best position in dollars and momentum
GOOGL: avg $281.31 → $395.96 (+40.8%) — best % gain
Key Decisions Ahead
1. NVDA May 20: 6 days. Hold 23.9%. H200 China clearance + summit + earnings. Don't touch.
2. Trump-Xi summit ends May 15: Tomorrow. If chip export deal → NVDA could gap to $250+.
3. Post-earnings plan: Beat + China deal → consider adding on dip if any. Miss → trim but don't panic.
4. MSFT: Watching for break above $415 or below $395.
5. Portfolio target: $120K+ achievable if NVDA beats and summit produces deal.
Mistakes to Avoid
Don't sell NVDA before May 20 — biggest confluence of catalysts ever
Don't add NVDA at ATH — 23.9% concentration is enough
Don't add MSFT on further dips — capex narrative may persist
Don't deploy cash below 7%
Don't panic on Warsh transition — hawkish but irrelevant to AI thesis
Don't chase narrow rally — breadth is poor (Dow fell while S&P/Nasdaq hit records)