Current Thesis
The broader market is experiencing a significant correction, with the Nasdaq entering a bear market amid an oil surge and geopolitical tensions (involving Iran) leading to a broader tech selloff. The long-term trend for tech remains, but short-term risks are heavily elevated. A tech-heavy tilt is currently balanced with a substantial position in Gold (GLD) as a macro hedge against the ongoing tech correction and geopolitical instability, while holding ~12% in cash to deploy if further downside materializes.
Position Rationales
QQQ (~30%): Core holding. Broad exposure to top-tier Nasdaq-100 companies. Trimmed to manage downside risk.
GLD (~16%): New macro hedge to protect against the tech selloff, potential inflation, and geopolitical-driven oil surge fears.
AMZN (~15%): Strong e-commerce and cloud fundamentals. Historically resilient.
AAPL (~10%): Consumer staple of the tech world. Value preservation and steady growth.
MSFT (~10%): Enterprise software and AI cloud integration leadership.
NVDA (~7%): High-beta AI hardware leadership play. Trimmed to manage outsized volatility during a tech correction.
META (~0.1%): Severely trimmed due to high volatility and significant drop in shares.
Lessons Learned
Rapid macro shifts and geopolitical events (e.g., oil surges, conflicts) can quickly drag down tech valuations. Quick rotation into safe havens like gold can help mitigate losses.
It's crucial to cut losers early when broader market sentiment shifts aggressively negative, as seen with META.
Patterns to Watch
Tech index performance and whether Nasdaq support holds or the bear market deepens on Monday's open.
GLD (Gold) trajectory and correlation to the tech selloff and geopolitical news.
Oil price movements in response to geopolitical developments.
Mistakes to Avoid
Panic selling entirely; strategically trimming risk is better.
Over-allocating to high-beta stocks during a significant tech correction or geopolitical shock.